On December 29 of 2016, Azerbaijan launched a diversionary infiltration attempt southeast of Chinar village in Tavush region of the Republic of Armenia, and entered into a battle with the Armenian Armed Forces. As a result, at least 3 Armenian servicemen have been killed.<\/p>\n
Thus, Azerbaijan has made an attack on the internationally recognized state borders of the Republic of Armenia, which means that this act should be followed by the response of Armenia\u2019s strategic allies, namely Russia and the other CSTO member states: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. However, at the time of writing this article, no such steps were taken by Armenia\u2019s allies though CSTO borders have been attacked. Leaving aside the expected actions by CSTO and, particularly, Russia, or their possible absence, we should note that these provocative actions by Azerbaijan have been preceded by a number of notable events.<\/p>\n
The \u201cIskanders\u201d and Their Effect <\/strong><\/p>\n As it is known, \u201cIskander\u201d missile systems obtained from Russia were shown during the military parade dedicated to the 25th<\/sup> anniversary of Armenia\u2019s independence. It was announced that these will help maintain balance of power in the region and that Armenia is getting a restraining advantage over Azerbaijan thanks to that armament.<\/p>\n However, on December 15, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Dmitry Rogozin left to Baku on a working visit<\/a> with a very interesting mission. Namely, Rogozin gave explanations in Baku related to the Armenian \u201cIskanders\u201d, and, according to media publications, also ensured that these will not be used against Azerbaijan.<\/p>\n Split in the CSTO<\/strong><\/p>\n The summit of the leaders of CSTO member states in Saint Petersburg on December 26 showed that there are deep problems in that structure which directly touch on Armenia\u2019s interests in a negative way. Armenian representative should have been appointed as CSTO Secretary General since December 2015. That issue was postponed in 2015 due to tense relations between Russia and Turkey.<\/p>\n The issue was raised again during the CSTO Summit in Yerevan in October 2016. However, the appointment did not take place as Kazakhstan\u2019s President Nursultan Nazarbayev did not participate in summit in Armenia explaining his absence by his being ill. Note that Nazarbayev is famous for his pro-Azerbaijani position, and later it was revealed that Nazarbayev was not sick<\/a> at all. \u00a0The agenda of the Saint Petersburg summit also contained appointment of the representative from Armenia, which again did not find a solution because of absence of the leader of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko (note<\/a> that Lukashenko visited Azerbaijan in November, where he received warmest welcome).<\/p>\n Combining all this, one can safely state that the appointment of an Armenian representative in the CSTO fails because of Armenia\u2019s contractual partners which have marked pro-Azerbaijani positions.<\/p>\n Joint Group of Forces and Air Defense <\/strong><\/p>\n During the last few months, the process of creation of a Joint Group of Forces<\/a> based on the Russian 102nd<\/sup> Military Base in Armenia and 5th<\/sup> Corps of the RA Armed Forces is in full action. It is being announced that Armenia will get additional security guarantees and that Russia will be more \u201cdiligently\u201d engaged in ensuring Armenia\u2019s security.<\/p>\n